The pseudonym "Philo Vaihinger" has been abandoned. All posts have been and are written by me, Joseph Auclair.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Depressing his own turnout

Morning Joe did interviews in the T of PA and found two Stein voters, one for Hillary, and a few for Trump, one of whom was a firm supporter who was not going to bother to vote.

He thinks the people will vote for Trump but Hillary will be made president because, as The Donald says, the system is rigged and the fix is definitely in.

He made a really bid deal of it in Gettysburg the other day.

The System is rigged

On Sunday, ABC News released a survey showing Hillary Clinton with a 12-point lead nationally. 

Buried a bit deeper in the poll were respondents' attitudes about Trump's claims of vote-rigging. 

Overall, 59 percent of respondents figured that Trump's oft-repeated claims that the vote is being rigged and that he'd otherwise win is simply an excuse he is using to offset an eventual loss. 

Thirty-nine percent of respondents said the issue was legitimate — a figure that includes 74 percent of Republicans and 84 percent of Trump supporters.

. . . .

Trump's core of support is, for a Republican presidential candidate, unusually made up of less-frequent voters. 

It's typically the case that college-educated white voters, who vote heavily, prefer the Republican nominee. 

This year, Hillary Clinton has the edge with that voting bloc. Trump's support is concentrated heavily among whites without college degrees, who are less likely to say they are certain to vote (and less likely to actually do so). 

Trump needs those less-frequent voters to go to the polls.

One study noted by the Monkey Cage suggests that claims of a rigged vote will make it less likely that infrequent voters go to the polls instead of more.

. . . .

As it stands, Trump is broadly unpopular and relying heavily on strong turnout from a group of voters that generally doesn't turn out that much. 

He needs to provide arguments that will get them (and others) to go cast a ballot on his behalf. 

Telling them instead that the vote is rigged and, implicitly, that their votes may not count seems like the exact opposite of what he should be doing.

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