If they could vote again on Brexit . . . .

The Brit classe politique is discovering reasons why this decision should never have hung on a single, simple majority plebiscite, dressed up as reasons for a second referendum.

Is Canceling Brexit Now Inevitable?

As matters stand today, a new British referendum on leaving the European Union would produce a clear majority for remaining a member, regardless of how the votes were counted or the questions were asked. 

And with the only two Brexit options set to be rejected next month, the questions are increasingly likely to be asked.

. . . .

As the impossibility of legislating either No Deal or May’s deal has become apparent, the aura of inevitability that has protected Brexit from serious challenge since 2016 is vanishing, and soon the sense of inevitability may swing in favor of a new referendum. 

This shift has already started in the British media. 

Having spent the past two years denouncing anyone who challenged Brexit as “enemies of the people” and a traitor to democracy, the BBC, TheTimes, and other influential media organs have suddenly remembered that an essential principle of democracy is that voters have the right to change their minds.

. . . .

The strongest objection to a second referendum is that the different counting systems could give very different results, at least in theory, thereby undermining the legitimacy of the entire process. 

But this objection turns out to be theoretically valid only if public opinion is divided fairly evenly between the three possible outcomes. 

In practice, opinion now seems to be shifting to the point where clear answers are likely, regardless of how the questions are asked.

In the first detailed poll of all three Brexit options, conducted by YouGov in early December, a standard first-past-the-post vote would result in Remain winning a huge 54% absolute majority, against 28% support for No Deal and 18% for May’s Deal. 

In a simple choice against May’s deal, the majority for Remain would be even bigger, at 62%. 

And in a preferential vote count that redistributed the second preferences of May’s supporters, Remain would still win by a decisive margin of 57% to 43%.

Of course, voters could change their minds in a referendum campaign. 

But as matters stand today, a new referendum would produce a clear majority for Britain remaining an EU member, regardless of how the votes were counted or the questions were asked. 

This suggests that the force of inevitability is starting to move against Brexit. 

“We all know that Brexit has to be canceled,” voters may soon be saying, “so why don’t the politicians just get on with it?”