At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths.
But based on the rate of people who have antibodies, it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April – a number approximately 50 to 80 times higher.
That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought.
That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought.
As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.
The study has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected.
The study has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected.
This would allow some to more quickly get back to work, a strategy currently being deployed in Sweden.
But researchers behind the study said not to jump to conclusions or make policy choices until more research has been done.
The study confirms the widely-held belief that far more people than originally thought have been infected with the coronavirus, said Arthur Reingold, an epidemiology professor at UC Berkeley who was not involved in the study, but it doesn’t mean the shelter-in-place order will be lifted any time soon.
“The idea this would be a passport to going safely back to work and getting us up and running has two constraints: we do not know if antibodies protect you and for how long, and a very small percentage of the population even has antibodies,” he said.
Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not.
The study confirms the widely-held belief that far more people than originally thought have been infected with the coronavirus, said Arthur Reingold, an epidemiology professor at UC Berkeley who was not involved in the study, but it doesn’t mean the shelter-in-place order will be lifted any time soon.
“The idea this would be a passport to going safely back to work and getting us up and running has two constraints: we do not know if antibodies protect you and for how long, and a very small percentage of the population even has antibodies,” he said.
Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not.
To reach herd immunity 50% or more of the population would have to be infected and recovered from coronavirus.
It is also unclear if the study, conducted exclusively on residents of Santa Clara county, is representative of the rest of the United States, researchers said.
. . . .
Other large-scale sample studies are currently underway. The National Institute of Health is testing 10,000 people.
It is also unclear if the study, conducted exclusively on residents of Santa Clara county, is representative of the rest of the United States, researchers said.
. . . .
Other large-scale sample studies are currently underway. The National Institute of Health is testing 10,000 people.
UC Berkeley is going to test 5,000 healthy volunteers to see if they have, or have ever had, the coronavirus.
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