The pseudonym "Philo Vaihinger" has been abandoned. All posts have been and are written by me, Joseph Auclair.

Thursday, April 2, 2020

At what point is the cure worse than the disease?

A "bear any burden, pay any price" approach analogous to Jack Kennedy's idiotic though popular Cold War extremism is clearly absurd.

But that does not settle whether we have already gone too far, as some claim.

And how do you measure that, anyway?

A few paragraphs on the topic are in this piece.

It's too vague, too sketchy, and anyway contestable, but if both the manner of measuring and the estimated impact are right (both of which I doubt, though of course the conclusion might still be true that we have already gone too far even if the premises are not) my impression is we're already paying too high a price.

Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll

The lockdown, itself, however could cost lives.

Prof Robert Dinwall, from Nottingham Trent University, says "the collateral damage to society and the economy" could include:


  • mental health problems and suicides linked to self-isolation
  • heart problems from lack of activity
  • the impact on health from increased unemployment and reduced living standards
Others have also pointed to the health cost from steps such as delaying routine operations and cancer screening.

Meanwhile, University of Bristol researchers say the benefit of a long-term lockdown in reducing premature deaths could be outweighed by the lost life expectancy from a prolonged economic dip.

And the tipping point, they say, is a 6.4% decline in the size of the economy - on a par with what happened following the 2008 financial crash.

It would see a loss of three months of life on average across the population because of factors from declining living standards to poorer health care.

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