The pseudonym "Philo Vaihinger" has been abandoned. All posts have been and are written by me, Joseph Auclair.

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Another poll with the same message, with a tad more pessimism.

Biden does best against Trump among registered voters.

And Democratic primary voters prefer him to the others more strongly than before.

But, again, cum grano salis, given that whopper margin of error.

July National Poll: Biden extends lead in Democratic Primary, Trump Closes the Gap in the General Election.

The first Democratic debate has shaken up the race for the Democratic nomination. 

Compared to June’s national poll, former VP Joe Biden extended his lead, Sen. Bernie Sanders lost ground, Sen. Kamala Harris doubled her support, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren held steady. 

Despite Biden losing 4 points of his support from 34% to 30%, he extended his lead in the Democratic primary from 7 points in June to 15 points, as his main rival, Sanders dropped 12 points to 15% from his June number of 27%. 

Harris saw her numbers improve 8 points to 15%, and Warren ticked up one point from June to 15% of the vote, creating a three way tie for second.  

The data was collected July 6-8 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

Um, the data were collected.

This is new.

And important.

Biden leads among all age groups. 

This is a departure from previous Emerson polls, where Sanders has consistently lead among the youngest group of voters. 

Among 18-29 year olds, 26% support Biden, 24% support Sanders, and 10% support Warren. 

Among 30-49 year olds Biden leads with 23%, followed by Sanders with 19%, and Harris and Warren with 16%. 

With voters 50-64 year olds, Biden leads with 36%, followed by Harris with 22%, Warren with 15%, and Sanders with 8%. 

With those over the age of 65, Biden received 38%, followed by Warren with 19%, Harris with 14%, and Sanders with 8%.

This is worth noticing and not actually surprising.

Since the June poll, Trump has seen his head to head numbers improve against all his Democratic rivals. 

He is now leading Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris 51%-49% each after trailing them all last month. 

Sanders leads Trump 51%-49% and Biden 53% to 47%. 

Kimball says, “It looks like Trump was a winner from the Democratic debate, as his head-to-heads tightened by about 5 points against all the leading Democratic candidates.”

Yeah. Socialism, much?

Too many Democrats have completely forgotten that Hillary beat Sanders all hollow and then actually got millions more votes than Trump.

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