The pseudonym "Philo Vaihinger" has been abandoned. All posts have been and are written by me, Joseph Auclair.

Monday, July 8, 2019

Biden can do it, says the latest poll. The others? Maybe not.

Biden beats Trump by 10 percent among registered voters, by 14 percent among adult Americans.

All the other Dems lead Trump a bit among all adults, too, but are in statistical dead heats with the Duce among registered voters.

Another question tests Trump against "a Democratic candidate who you regard as a socialist" –relevant given the Republicans’ stated aim of applying that label to their eventual opponent. 

Not to mention the habit of some of the Democrats - and one notable non-Democrat running for the Democratic nomination for the second time - of applying the label to themselves.

Among the general public the race is tied among Trump vs. a perceived socialist; among registered voters it goes +6 to Trump, 49% to 43%, not a significant difference.

It seems that registered voters are notably both more pro-Trump and more anti-socialist than all adults.

Results show some notable differences among groups. 

Moderates favor Biden over Trump by a 29-point margin, compared with 18- to 15-point margins for Warren, Sanders or Buttigieg vs. Trump (and 21 points for Harris). 

Biden leads among most groups save traditionally GOP-leaning ones, including whites who lack a college degree, conservatives, older adults and rural Americans. 

Among blacks, Biden’s 83-12 lead is as good as Harris’ 77-16%. 

And Biden has a 17-point lead among college-educated white women, which is better than Harris’ 9 points and Warren’s 7 points in the same key Democratic group. 

Indeed neither of those is a statistically significant lead.

And that's some fat margin of error they have in this poll, eh?

Bear all this in mind when impatient and even delusion Democrats from the party's left write stuff like this.

They remind me of activist nitwits who sincerely thought the anti-war movement was going to bring about a red revolution in the US, back in the day, during the Vietnam War.

Or the kind of nitwit Hollywood liberals who actually believed - as opposed to merely, mendaciously, and viciously claimed to believe - the US military might stage a coup against a too liberal president and install a more firmly anti-Communist military dictatorship in his place.

(Think Seven Days in May.)

Oh, about that difference between all adults and registered voters.

The differences between all adults and registered voters mark a longtime GOP advantage; their support groups are more apt to be signed up to vote. 

Just 64% of 18- to 29-year-olds, a broadly Democratic group, are registered, vs. 92% of those 50 and older. 

And only 71% of nonwhites are registered, including 61% of Hispanics (a group with more younger adults and non-citizens alike), vs. 89% of whites.

These are early days, of course, with time aplenty for preferences to develop. 

It’s also worth noting that, as the 2016 contest showed, polling ahead in – and winning – the national vote is not necessarily the same as winning the Electoral College.

80% of life is just showing up, as Woody Allen once noted.

No comments:

Post a Comment