The pseudonym "Philo Vaihinger" has been abandoned. All posts have been and are written by me, Joseph Auclair.

Friday, June 19, 2020

Floyd demonstrations and the virus

Reportedly, the demonstrations have generated no noticeable uptick in the number of new cases.

Might they have prevented a drop in new cases that would otherwise have been seen?

The daily number of new cases in the US seems to have stabilized since late April, making the spread of the virus linear rather than exponential.

That's a national thing.

[In some locales new cases are falling while in others they are still rising.

And while more testing is being done, the percentage of positives among those tested is higher which means the increase in new cases does represent speeding spread of the virus.

Lately, they have been rising in "the sun belt" states.]

If, over the same period, the number of people tested nationally has risen in some regular manner that would mean the percentage of positives among those tested has actually been dropping and the rate of spread has actually dropped over that period.

In much of Europe new cases continued to decline over that period.

Both more contagious and more deadly than the flu, this bug is going to kill a lot of people.

But contagion seems to be limited to person to person close encounters lasting some time.

There's going to be a lot of that in Tulsa, tomorrow.

This morning on Morning Joe, people were asking the question how "real life" looks if there never is a vaccine, or anyway not for years.

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