The pseudonym "Philo Vaihinger" has been abandoned. All posts have been and are written by me, Joseph Auclair.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Where things stand

What are PM's Brexit options now that EU has granted extension?

Subhead: Theresa May has until 31 October to get her deal through parliament - but the way forward remains unclear

That is not quite true.

The UK has until 31 October to accept her deal, both the withdrawal agreement and the (legally non-binding, whatever the hell that really means) political declaration, cancel Brexit, or go out with no agreement and then still have to accept her deal and no other before the EU will even begin to talk about anything to do with the future relationship between the UK and the EU.

It will be WTO rules for the UK, without a bit of softening from any bilateral agreement, until and unless they agree to May's deal.

And it is just that fact, that controlling and irremovable, rock-hard fact, that only one deal is on the table and they must, in the end, cancel Brexit, live rough forever under WTO rules, or accept it, that the Parliament - and perhaps most of the UK classe politique - have refused to get through their thick skulls since the day she brought it back to them from long and hard negotiations with the EU.

Despite the fact that the EU has repeatedly told them that all along and never even hinted otherwise.

[Tusk apparently did hint a while back that there might be a small bit of wiggle in the finer details of the political declaration, but nothing much and nothing else].

When they say things like this what on earth are they thinking of?

May believes her deal – which would allow the government to control migration – is closer to what Brexit voters want, than the alternatives.

What alternatives? A WTO Brexit? No Brexit at all? Because those are the only alternatives to a Brexit very much softened by the only available deal, her deal.

The Brits are in a fix of their own making and are like so many fish already caught and flapping around uselessly on the deck as they expire.

There is still no majority in Parliament for any of their actual three options and they crash out with no deal on October 31 of this year by default if there is no majority for any option by then.

Unless the EU prefers yet more delay of Brexit to actual occurrence of a no deal Brexit - and that may well be so.

This all so much reminds me of a person who does not know his own mind promising to do X and then delaying and delaying until he finally realizes he just cannot bring himself to do X.

Perhaps the EU is just patiently waiting for the people and rulers of the UK to realize, to accept, that they really cannot bring themselves to do Brexit.

Update. So, OK, some people get it. Or nearly do.

This might work, but likely won't happen.

And this is true: the right has become an Alex Jones bullshit right fronting for Thatcherism, in Europe as well as the USA.

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