A way out for Venezuela?

Venezuela

Maduro could renounce the presidency if he’s able to choose a new leader who subscribes to the same political ideology he does.

He is a chavista, someone who believes former President Hugo Chávez’s brand of populist, authoritarian socialism is the best way to govern.

Chávez is a legendary figure in Venezuela who transformed the country’s political and economic landscape by nationalizing industries and funneling enormous amounts of government money into social programs.

Under his rule, Venezuela’s unemployment rate decreased by nearly 50 percent, income per capita more than doubled, the poverty rate fell by more than half, education improved, and infant mortality rates declined.

But he also stacked the country’s courts with political allies, passed laws restricting the ability of journalists to criticize the government, and consistently sought ways to remove checks on his power.

Maduro tried to follow Chávez’s playbook, but the results were ruinous for the country. 

Oil prices crashed in late 2014, and the economy crashed with it. 

And after political opponents took control of the National Assembly in December 15, he tried to dissolve it while placing his cronies in the Supreme Court and elsewhere. 

What Venezuela got was an increasingly authoritarian leader overseeing a crumbling economy.

Now, roughly 80 percent of the country — and thousands on the streets — oppose him. 

That may compel leaders of Maduro’s socialist party to ask him to step aside and see if another chavista can do better as president. 

There are at least four people, including a governor and a mayor, waiting in the wings for their moment. 

This may be it.

If this scenario plays out, it means Venezuela’s future will look fairly similar to if Maduro remains in office. 

Basically: new face, same government.

The mounting domestic and international pressure may ultimately prove too much for Maduro, forcing him to cut a deal with the opposition and step aside.

It’s unclear what that deal might look like. 

One possibility is Maduro agrees to remain in power until a fair election is held and then departs so the winner can take over. 

Another is Maduro willingly hands the country over to Guaidó as a caretaker while he calls for new elections.

Late on Thursday, Guaidó told Univision that he might consider offering Maduro amnesty if he willingly leaves office. 

“In transitional periods, we’ve seen similar things happening,” he said. 

“We can’t discard any element. We have to be firm, to get humanitarian assistance. Our priority is our people.”

The hope is that a new leader, presumably not from Maduro’s socialist party, would steer the country back toward a democracy. 

But even this rosy outcome has its challenges.

That’s because some of Maduro policies remain popular, particularly his party’s emphasis on spending large amounts of state revenue on funding social programs such as free medical care and affordable food. 

And a new leader would almost certainly have to make tough choices — including cutting funding for some of those programs — to end Venezuela’s economic collapse.

That could lead citizens to bristle, and possibly push out, the new leader in a short amount of time. 

In other words, the person who replaces Maduro with sincere hopes of fixing Venezuela will have a very tough job — and may not be very popular for doing it.