Near as I can tell, it means only "more likely than not, on the evidence we have right now".
Or, "probably, on the evidence we have right now."
A propos the dawn raid Manafort search.
More likely than not or probably, they would find evidence of a crime in his house.
More likely than not or probably, he would not produce it voluntarily and it would not be there to be found if he knew they were coming to get it.
So I gather.
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